December 6, 2017

Report: CT population growth projected to slow through 2040

Connecticut's population growth is slowing, although there's no evidence of an exodus of young people, according to a report in the latest edition of the Connecticut Economic Digest.

The state's population is projected to grow just 1.7 percent over the next 25 years through 2040, less than the 20 percent growth rate of the previous quarter-century, according to the reports author, Patrick Flaherty, assistant director of the Office of Research for the state Department of Labor (DOL).

His analysis is based on data from the Connecticut State Data Center.

Connecticut's business community is eager to retain young people as it seeks to deploy new talent and grow business and industry and the state's tax base.

Compared to 2015, Connecticut is projected to have more children under age 10 in 2040; more people ages 25 to 44, and more over age 70. However, there will be fewer people ages 10 to 24 and 45 to 69, he said.

"Declines in the younger population groups are driven by a low birth rate while migration out of state is concentrated in older age groups," Flaherty writes. "Nevertheless, the number of senior citizens will increase while the school-aged population will decline."

Growth will be uneven across cities and towns with some (particularly the largest cities) gaining significant population while others decline, Flaherty said.

Looking ahead through 2030, towns expected to gain the most population are New Haven, West Haven, Manchester, Bridgeport, Norwich and Danbury. The five largest cities in 1970 -- Hartford, Bridgeport, New Haven, Stamford and Waterbury -- had 60,000 fewer residents by 2000, but they have been increasing since and are projected to top their 1970 population by 2030, Flaherty said.

The digest is produced by the DOL and state Department of Economic and Community Development.

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