November 20, 2018

JPMorgan strategist: We're not in a bear market

The market is sinking again.

But is it in bear territory? That's up for debate.

"It's not a bear market," David Kelly, chief global strategist for JPMorgan Funds, told CNN anchor and correspondent Paula Newton on "Markets Now" on Wednesday. "The market's down about 10% from its peak, that's a very normal correction within a year," he said, noting that 10% may even be on the low side for a yearly correction.

Kelly's opinion runs counter to that of Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson, who wrote in a report Monday that the bull run has already ended.

"The market is speaking loudly that bad news is coming," Wilson warned.

The question of whether the bull market is over hinges on whether a recession is coming: Wilson suggests we may be on the brink of one. Kelly thinks otherwise.

One big fear is that the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates more rapidly than the economy can handle. Credit-sensitive parts of the economy, especially autos and housing, have already begun to slow. Wilson wrote that the Fed isn't likely to "bail out" investors by backing down from rate hikes.

Kelly argues that the economy will slow down next year, and that the slowdown will prevent the Fed from aggressively raising rates. He added that the trade war could prompt a recession --- but that the Trump administration will keep tariffs in check before that happens.

"This trade war is a war of choice, not a war of necessity," he said.

"Markets Now" streams live from the New York Stock Exchange every Wednesday at 12:45 p.m. ET. Hosted by CNN's business correspondents, the 15-minute program features incisive commentary from experts.

You can watch "Markets Now" at from your desk or on your phone or tablet. If you can't catch the show live, check out highlights online and through the Markets Now newsletter, delivered to your inbox every afternoon.

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