Lessons from the 2018 election season
Steve Jewett
With votes still being counted, Democrats and Republicans come out of 2018 with no certainty on how the 2020 presidential election will play out.
Here are seven 2018 election trends that may repeat in 2020.
The “Democratic Wave” happened. Pundits spent the past year predicting just how big the wave would be, particularly among women turning out to vote who were still upset by Hillary Clinton losing to President Trump. The wave was bigger in some states like Michigan, which went for Trump in 2016, but elected an entire statewide ticket of Democratic women.
Georgia voters almost elected a Democratic black woman as governor, which would have been historic. Even conservative Kansas now has a Democratic woman as its governor.
The big question is whether Democrats can keep up the same enthusiasm and turnout for 2020.
Republicans had good turnout too, not so much a wave, but a late surge. It was enough to hold on to Florida, Ohio and Georgia where hopeful Democratic candidates thought their overperformance in turnout would propel them to wins in these Republican-leaning states.
It was President Trump who motivated his base in the final weeks to vote. It started with the Kavanaugh hearings and moved into a three-week tour of states where Trump spun the issues of the caravan, China's trade war, mass shootings and a new tax cut.
It worked better than expected and gives Trump's team hope he may repeat the same rally late in 2020.
Democrats won the cycle. They mobilized their vote with a broad message of “don't let it happen again” and won the top prizes of taking back the House and winning seven new governorships.
Democrats fielded an unprecedented number of women candidates and candidates of color. They didn't all win, but Democrats solidified their advantage in representing the growing diversity of the nation's population.
Thirty incoming Democratic Congress members had never run for office before. This 2018 cycle produced a new generation of diverse candidates and gave optimism to people considering running primaries against entrenched incumbents.
Democrats' faith is restored going into 2020, but they should not mistake this as a landslide. Compared to past mid-term election corrections, this was average: Clinton lost 54 House seats, Obama 64 and Trump 40.
For Democrats, their big challenge going forward is setting a new agenda — their version of Newt Gingrich's “Contract with America.” If the economy and consumer confidence remain strong, then Democrats will be challenged to find wedge issues against Trump other than his boorish behavior continuing to motivate their base voter.
Democrats did not gain a “mandate,” but rather a fresh opportunity to present a “change” message. Much of that message will depend on what openings President Trump hands them at the start of the new Congress.
Democrats that won in swing states learned to talk about local policy, not just about Trump. If Democratic leadership doesn't have a unified domestic policy message, Trump will divide and conquer them with his simple but effective messages.
Obamacare, which turned Democrats upside down in the 2014 election, has come full circle in Democrats' favor. More campaign TV ads ran about health care than any other issue in 2018. People enjoy the benefits, coverage of pre-existing conditions is popular, and the spooky “death panels” never happened.
If Republicans make any move to reduce healthcare benefits, such as defunding Planned Parenthood, Democrats need to go full bore to protect it.
Democrats are looking at a presidential primary field of 20-plus candidates. It's the full ideological spectrum, from Bernie Sanders to Mike Bloomberg. This does not bode well for their unification. 2020 may require Democrats to nominate a different type of candidate to beat this most unconventional president.
Democrats should consider moving their national convention a little earlier, as they will need time to come together and prepare for a challenging 2020 autumn.
Steve Jewett is managing partner of McDowell Jewett Communications in Hartford and served as senior advisor to Gov.-elect Ned Lamont.
Most Recent
Most Recent
0 Comments