Republican nominee will need to be master negotiator
What better way to curry favor with a core constituency during an election year than to pitch a tax cut for middle class families.
That's exactly what Republican gubernatorial candidate John P. McKinney did recently with his proposal to exempt from the state income tax all households earning less than $75,000 per year.
It's tough to argue against the need for tax cuts in Connecticut. But it seems unlikely that a Democrat-controlled legislature would approve it, particularly when McKinney wants to eliminate the earned income tax credit for the poor to pay for it.
As we head into this week's Republican primary, a key question voters should ask is which candidate is putting forth a realistic plan to shore up Connecticut's finances and improve the business climate.
Pie in the sky policy proposals make for appealing 30-second TV commercials, but if they can't become law they have as much value as the script they've been written on.
If McKinney or Republican frontrunner Tom Foley win November's gubernatorial election, perhaps their biggest challenge will be working with a Democrat-controlled legislature. With overwhelming majorities in the House and Senate (something not likely to change in the upcoming election), McKinney or Foley will have to be master negotiators to implement their strategic visions for the state. Even then, they'll have to cede ground on many issues to get legislation through the bicameral gauntlet.
Who would be most likely to succeed? There's no clear cut answer. McKinney, with years of experience as a state lawmaker, including most recently as senate minority leader, certainly knows how the legislative process works. He's also built relationships with many legislators, which could work to his advantage.
McKinney, however, has been much more aggressive on the campaign trail expressing support for cutting government spending and taxes. Those are sentiments we support, but it's not clear how he'll be able to broker such deals with the legislature.
Foley, a former ambassador to Ireland, has been much more diplomatic on the campaign trail, revealing few specifics about many of his policies. He has said he can balance the looming $1.4 billion deficit simply by freezing spending at current levels. That approach would likely have a better shot at gaining legislative support, but it would still require budget cuts to account for inflationary increases to state agency budgets and higher, mandatory pension and debt payments. Foley has also pitched a sales tax cut and eliminating the $250 business entity tax.
It may turn out that neither Foley nor McKinney will be able to find common ground with a legislature that has been resistant to reducing the size and scope of government. If that's the case, the gridlock that has encapsulated Washington D.C. in recent years may find its way up to Hartford. Of course Connecticut, unlike the federal government, is legally bound to pass a budget, but that doesn't mean the process won't breed a stalemate.
In 2009, Gov. M. Jodi Rell, the state's last Republican governor, actually refused to sign or veto a two-year, $37.5 billion spending plan after a five-month standoff with House and Senate Democrats left Connecticut without a budget until September (It typically passes in June).
Rell's decision not to sign or veto the budget allowed it to automatically become law. Her inaction garnered criticism from the left and right and shortly afterward she announced she wouldn't seek another term in office. A similar legislative fight could be on the horizon should McKinney or Foley win in November.
Of course, some may argue legislative gridlock would be a good thing in Hartford, preventing the legislature from passing new laws that make it harder to do business in the state. We'll have to wait and see if that's the case.
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