Processing Your Payment

Please do not leave this page until complete. This can take a few moments.

Updated: December 27, 2019 ECONOMIST SCORECARDS

Slower U.S. economy will drag down CT in 2020

By Steven P. Lanza
Steven P. Lanza, Associate Professor in Residence, Economics University of Connecticut

Connecticut will likely end 2019 having gained 6,000 jobs for the year. Even so, the state will still come up 3,000 jobs short of its 2008 high-water mark of 1,699,000 jobs, measured on an annual basis.

And there is no guarantee it can cross that threshold in 2020 either. Jobs are only forecasted to grow by 3,000 next year.

Like jobs, Connecticut’s GDP is struggling to rescale previous heights. State GDP is on track to increase 1.6 percent in 2019, but by just 0.4 percent in 2020. The real value of output produced in Connecticut remains nearly 5 percent below the previous business cycle peak.

The number of state residents employed, by contrast, is at an all-time high. In 2019, an average of 1,845,000 residents who were in the labor force held jobs. That’s up by 70,000, or 4 percent, from 2008, at the crest of the last business cycle.

The number employed can exceed the number of jobs because the former includes those who are self-employed or working out of state. And the high employment count helps to explain why wages and salaries are 20 percent higher now than in 2008, why the jobless rate has dropped to 3.7 percent, and why it should inch down further to 3.6 percent next year.

Connecticut’s lackluster 2020 prospects are predicated on an anticipated slowdown in the U.S. economy next year. And President Trump’s trade war is hobbling state exporters: Connecticut exports have dropped nearly 20 percent, or by more than $800 million, in just over a year.

Still, there are some bright spots. Electric Boat is mounting a huge new investment in its Groton facility ahead of its production of the Navy’s next-generation Columbia-class submarine. The state Department of Energy and Environmental Protection has made a major foray into renewable energy generation by awarding Deepwater Wind a contract to build a 200-megawatt offshore wind farm near Block Island.

And the state’s world-class educational and healthcare facilities will continue to be a source of growth for years to come.

Sign up for Enews

Most Recent

Most Recent

0 Comments

Order a PDF